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OI Formation & Direction

IWM · Jul 31, 2026 · $272 put IWM260731P00272000

Two-stage assessment

Confirmed net formation

OI increased by 12 contracts after the source session.

Initiation evidence
Structure-contaminated · Bid-led
Underlying implication
Underlying implication unresolved

Settlement arithmetic

Formation window

Source trade date
June 26, 2026Tape session
Baseline OI
199OI visible on source date
Settlement observation
June 29, 2026Next returned trading row
Settled OI
211Next observation
OI change
+12Settled minus baseline
Trade-day volume
17Bound denominator
Net-formation ratio
70.59%OI change ÷ volume

Bound-first attribution

Side partitions & lower bounds

Each raw bound is max(0, OI change − (volume − side volume)). A positive value is the minimum net formation forced into that quote-side bucket.

Ask
7Raw lower bound: 2
Bid
10Raw lower bound: 5
Mid
0Raw lower bound: 0
Neutral
0Raw lower bound: 0
Clean ask
0Side volume after allowing all flagged structure to contaminate this bucket
Clean bid
0Side volume after allowing all flagged structure to contaminate this bucket

Conservative allowance

Flagged structure

The clean dominant-side bound allows every flagged contract to contaminate that side. Because flags can overlap, their sum is capped at daily volume.

Multileg
10Flags may overlap
Stock multileg
0Flags may overlap
Cross
0Flags may overlap
Floor
0Flags may overlap
Clamped structure allowance
10Sum capped at total volume

Context only

Intraday corroboration

Minute clustering, premium, and IV describe the tape. They cannot create or increase a mathematical bound.

Active minutes
10Returned minute buckets
Largest minute
635.29% of daily volume
Ask/bid premium imbalance
-16.58%Positive is ask-premium led
IV range
28.55% – 29.09%Descriptive only
Daily reconciliation
ReconciledMinute side totals versus daily side totals

Interpretation boundaries

What this report cannot verify

Motive and identity remain unknown

These aggregates cannot distinguish speculation, hedging, overwriting, participant capacity, or verified open/close labels.

Conditional dealer mechanics

If a dealer was the counterparty, carried this position without portfolio offsets, and delta-hedged it, the mechanical scenario could require the dealer to buy underlying. This is not verified flow.

Reason codes confirmed_net_formation structure_can_explain_side_bound