Oppty · Contract evidence
← Contract historyOI Formation & Direction
ETHA · Jul 2, 2026 · $12.5 call
ETHA260702C00012500
Two-stage assessment
Confirmed net formation
OI increased by 21,388 contracts after the source session.
- Initiation evidence
- Mathematically bounded · Ask-led
- Underlying implication
- Consistent with bullish call accumulation
Settlement arithmetic
Formation window
- Source trade date
- June 29, 2026Tape session
- Baseline OI
- 12,340OI visible on source date
- Settlement observation
- June 30, 2026Next returned trading row
- Settled OI
- 33,728Next observation
- OI change
- +21,388Settled minus baseline
- Trade-day volume
- 40,503Bound denominator
- Net-formation ratio
- 52.81%OI change ÷ volume
Bound-first attribution
Side partitions & lower bounds
Each raw bound is max(0, OI change − (volume − side volume)).
A positive value is the minimum net formation forced into that quote-side bucket.
- Ask
- 32,403Raw lower bound: 13,288
- Bid
- 6,714Raw lower bound: 0
- Mid
- 1,386Raw lower bound: 0
- Neutral
- 0Raw lower bound: 0
- Clean ask
- 13,274Side volume after allowing all flagged structure to contaminate this bucket
- Clean bid
- 0Side volume after allowing all flagged structure to contaminate this bucket
Conservative allowance
Flagged structure
The clean dominant-side bound allows every flagged contract to contaminate that side. Because flags can overlap, their sum is capped at daily volume.
- Multileg
- 14Flags may overlap
- Stock multileg
- 0Flags may overlap
- Cross
- 0Flags may overlap
- Floor
- 0Flags may overlap
- Clamped structure allowance
- 14Sum capped at total volume
Context only
Intraday corroboration
Minute clustering, premium, and IV describe the tape. They cannot create or increase a mathematical bound.
- Active minutes
- 127Returned minute buckets
- Largest minute
- 12,67031.28% of daily volume
- Ask/bid premium imbalance
- +70.09%Positive is ask-premium led
- IV range
- 51.85% – 73.08%Descriptive only
- Daily reconciliation
- ReconciledMinute side totals versus daily side totals
Interpretation boundaries
What this report cannot verify
Motive and identity remain unknown
These aggregates cannot distinguish speculation, hedging, overwriting, participant capacity, or verified open/close labels.
Conditional dealer mechanics
If a dealer was the counterparty, carried this position without portfolio offsets, and delta-hedged it, the mechanical scenario could require the dealer to buy underlying. This is not verified flow.
confirmed_net_formation
clean_bound_forces_side